The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its February 2026 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-668, released February 10) revised downward its outlook for U.S. poultry production specifically for the first quarter of 2026, based on recent production data and hatchery indicators.
Broiler production expectations for Q1 were cut due to slower-than-expected national flock expansion. According to complementary NASS Hatchery data, late January egg sets rose only 1% year-over-year, while pullet placements for breeder replacement fell 4%—signaling constrained output potential ahead. Annual broiler production is now projected at 48.50 billion pounds, a marginal revision.
The USDA also trimmed its 2026 turkey production forecast, reflecting flock reductions tied to ongoing highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in commercial operations.
Egg production projections were lowered as well, with HPAI losses in laying flocks tightening supply and creating firmer market conditions.
Wholesale poultry prices have firmed amid the supply constraints: early February’s national composite broiler price (per AMS data) ranged 126–128 cents per pound, with whole bird prices stable but select cuts like wings and boneless skinless breasts strengthening on steady demand and low stocks. WASDE 2026 broiler price forecasts remain unchanged year-over-year.
The February WASDE notes total U.S. meat production for 2026 edges higher overall, boosted by beef and pork gains that partially offset poultry declines. Feed costs remain supportive, though early Northern Hemisphere crop progress could influence inputs later.
