Weather patterns do not usually dominate discussions in the poultry industry. This year may prove different.
With El Niño now established in the equatorial Pacific, attention is increasingly focused on the world’s major grain and oilseed producing regions. According to RaboResearch, there is an 81% probability that the current event will strengthen into a very strong El Niño, raising fresh uncertainty over crop production in several key exporting countries during the 2026/27 season.
That does not automatically translate into lower harvests or higher feed costs. One of the report’s central messages is that El Niño does not produce the same outcome every time. Its influence is based on historical weather patterns rather than fixed predictions, and the timing and location of weather anomalies ultimately determine the impact on agricultural production.
For feed markets, the picture is therefore far from one-sided.
In South America, Argentina is among the countries that could benefit from improved rainfall. Better soil moisture would support the production of corn, soybeans and winter wheat, while parts of the southern United States are also expected to experience favourable growing conditions. Stronger harvests in those regions could help offset weaker production elsewhere if weather conditions deteriorate in other exporting countries.
Australia presents a different risk. Historically, El Niño has been associated with hotter and drier conditions across much of the country’s eastern and central grain belt, where wheat, barley and canola are grown. Crops entered the current season in generally favourable condition following near-normal winter rainfall, but RaboResearch notes that the timing of any shift towards drier weather will be critical as harvest approaches. For international feed markets, Australia matters well beyond its own borders, as it remains one of the world’s leading wheat exporters.
Brazil offers perhaps the clearest reminder that El Niño rarely produces uniform outcomes. Southern soybean-producing states often receive more rainfall during El Niño years, although excessive precipitation can disrupt field operations, delay harvest and reduce grain quality. Further north, conditions tend to move in the opposite direction. Central, northern and northeastern producing regions are more likely to experience below-average rainfall, increasing production risks if dry conditions persist. The report also points to another potential consequence: lower water levels in the Amazon Basin could restrict barge traffic, increasing grain transport costs along Brazil’s northern export corridors.
Elsewhere, weaker monsoon conditions could create additional pressure on crop production in parts of Asia, including corn. Even so, RaboResearch notes that substantial grain reserves held by countries such as India and China reduce the likelihood that moderate production losses would immediately trigger a sharp increase in import demand.
Although cereals and oilseeds remain the main focus for poultry producers, the report highlights one market where El Niño is already having a measurable effect. Warmer waters off the Peruvian coast have disrupted the country’s anchovy fishery, sharply reducing the availability of fish meal and fish oil. Prices have reacted accordingly. While these ingredients play a much larger role in aquaculture than in commercial poultry diets, the development illustrates how quickly weather-related disruptions can spread through global feed ingredient markets.
For the poultry sector, the most important developments will be those affecting the production of feed ingredients in the world’s major exporting regions. The extent of any impact on feed ingredient markets will ultimately depend on when—and where—the effects of El Niño materialise across the world’s main producing areas during the remainder of the 2026/27 production cycle.
Source: www.rabobank.com
